The reason is that recently, we've seen some big moves in altcoins. Today, we will look to break down the majors to give us context for the overall market direction. We will then move on to analysing altcoins in a shorter format by covering more plays,
The goal is to identify target buying zones for the bull run if we get some price pullbacks.
You can jump to the analysis of assets you are most interested in by clicking the directional links below.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.
General market mechanics
We've seen in the past week that Open Interest (the amount of leverage in the market) has significantly increased. However, the Funding Rates remained flat, meaning there was an even balance in positioning between Longs and Shorts.This is usually fine, and prices can continue in the direction they're moving in as neither side (Longs or Shorts) are too overcrowded and, therefore, not vulnerable to a flush out. Since yesterday, we have now begun to see the Funding Rates increase, and they have increased across altcoins rather than the Majors.
This suggests that participants believe altcoins will run next as BTC is having/has had its run in the near-term - long-term.
We're extremely bullish, of course, but we also recognise prices are up a lot in the very short term.
While this is just beginning (the increase in Funding Rates), if it ramps up dramatically higher, Longs will become increasingly vulnerable to a flush out, which may see prices have a 10%-15% drawdown.
But, if we were to get this, we'd be a buyer of this flush out - assuming Funding Rates continue to increase and we do see a flush out.
Let's now look at BTC, ETH and SOL.
BTC
- BTC has had a really strong price action once the $44k resistance was overcome.
- Open Interest is high, and Funding Rates have begun to move slightly north of 0.01%, but are still relatively low, particularly in comparison to altcoins.
- BTC has a resistance at $52,900 and then $57,400.
- To the downside, we would look at the local uptrend to provide support for price along with the horizontal level of $47,100.
Cryptonary's take
It's certainly possible that price will move higher, especially if we continue to see positive ETF flows. However, they're likely to subside the higher price goes.Remember, we're still very early in the cycle, being three months out from the halving. It's possible that if prices go slightly higher, say $53k to $57k, we see a month or two of prices consolidating or even pulling back.
Any major pullbacks should be bought, with $47,100 as the first major testing level we'd buy if price pulls back to there.
ETH
- Mechanics-wise, ETH is similar to Bitcoin in that Open Interest is up a lot, and the Funding Rate is beginning to move higher, but it isn't currently at overheated levels where we'd then expect a flush out.
- The key test for ETH on a move-up was to see if it could break above $2,640. Price has smashed through that level, so it's extremely positive.
- The upside target for ETH is $3,140.
- If price does pull back, the first area of support we'd hope to see hold would be the horizontal level of $2,640.
- If price does pull back, we'd be a buyer at the local yellow box between $2,420 and $2,460.
Cryptonary's take
Finally, we're beginning to see some positive price action for ETH.ETH looks to be one of the majors that may have another 10-20% upside in the short term, assuming BTC can hold at or close to its highs.
We would not look to add more ETH or even BTC at current prices. We will continue to hold Spot ETH and then look to accumulate on pullbacks. If price pulls back to the local yellow box, we'd be a buyer and add to our ETH bags there.
Note: if price creates a new high, the yellow box will move slightly higher, as it's calculated using the lows and the highs.’’
SOL
- SOL's Open Interest is at record highs again and well above the highs we saw in December 2024. The Funding Rate is now also at 0.02%, indicating a bias to be Long on SOL. This should suggest some caution, particularly if the mechanics become uglier.
- Price has performed very well and is now testing a key horizontal resistance at $117.
- If SOL can overcome $117, then $131 is the next target, followed by the $140 to $150 range.
- To the downside, $102 looks to be a good level of support, with $86 to $93 also being a really strong range.
Cryptonary's take
In the long run, $115 still feels and seems cheap for SOL; therefore, we would look to continue accumulating SOL on any pullbacks.Anything around $102 would likely be a good entry for the long term if we're given a pullback.
LINK
- LINK's Open Interest has really picked up. However, the Funding Rate is still relatively flat, around 0.01% - healthy.
- LINK has managed to get above the $17.74 horizontal resistance. If the market holds up, LINK could run to $24 in the short term.
- If LINK were to pull back from the current level, we could potentially add LINK in the yellow box between $16.33 and $16.78.
Cryptonary's take
Below, we're showing a zoomed-out chart to emphasise the accumulation range LINK was in for such a long time.This is now why we're experiencing the breakout that we're seeing that could head even higher in the short term.
If you hold LINK from a low entry price, we would continue holding, although we wouldn't look to add at current prices to our Spot bag.
TIA
- TIA is currently battling a key uptrend.
- If the uptrend is lost, this could send price lower, with the first major target being the yellow box between $15.46 and $16.03.
- TIA does not seem overbought here, with key trading indicators such as the RSI resetting substantially.
Cryptonary's take
TIA could go higher in the short term as it isn't overbought if it can hold its uptrend line.The yellow boxes would be target zones to add TIA if you're under-exposed and are a fan of this token for the bull run.
TAO
- We placed the yellow box perfectly before, yet didn't place Longs to be filled.
- Since filling the yellow box, price has gone practically vertically higher.
- TIA is currently in an uptrend that, if broken, could see a more meaningful reset for price.
- Price is very overbought on a number of major timeframes.
Cryptonary's take
The yellow box between $360 and $390 would likely be a good long-term entry if price pulls back enough that it gives us this entry.SEI
- SEI has moved up into a key fib target level. SEI may struggle to break higher than the red box in the short term.
- If the price does pull back, the $0.70 to $0.80 could be a target settling level.
- SEI is overbought on several timeframes. Something to just be aware of.
Cryptonary's take
If you're holding SEI Spot from a low level, we will continue holding.But, if price were to undertake a more meaningful pullback, we'd target the yellow box between $0.51 and $0.56.
SHDW
- Overall, the price action is quite ugly chart-wise, but it's also a relatively clean chart in that there are clear accumulation levels that are identifiable.
- The accumulation levels would be between $0.92 and $1.10. This is a significant move up in our accumulation levels that we put out prior.
Cryptonary's take
The way we would play SHDW is to DCA into the token on Jupiter with very small amounts of USDT every day or week, every time price is beneath $1.10.The idea is then that you build a position below the $1.10 level over the coming months. Long-term targets for SHDW would be between $3 and $5, but potentially even higher.
NOS
- Price is in a major uptrend, so we certainly wouldn't chase this if you have missed it. However, it's worth picking up on any major pullbacks.
Cryptonary's take
Nosana is a personal favourite of our Head of Analysis. However, it is up a lot in the past week. Therefore, we have identified key levels where you could accumulate NOS if there is a pullback.We wouldn't chase it if missed, but with a smallish market cap between $200 and $300m, assuming we get a pullback (current mcap is $370m), then NOS could be a good long-term buy if price does pullback to the yellow boxes.
However, this is only likely if we see a wider market pullback.
Don’t fumble the bag
Today’s market direction is in a shorter format designed to cover more altcoins that we don't always cover.The market has gone up a lot recently. While we may see a pullback, it's also possible that prices can move another 10%-20% or so higher - potentially $57k for BTC, but this may likely top the rally, and it also assumes $53k can be overcome.
But, the above Market Direction is not an indication to sell Spot bags as we believe we're in a wider bull market.
However, the above is to help us identify key pullback levels on some of the recent altcoins that have shown major strength IF they do pullback.
These levels will be updated if prices move higher. We're fully in Spot and not looking to sell.
But, we are looking to take advantage of any major pullbacks and add to our bags if given a potential pullback.