Majors are thriving, memes strengthen, but altcoins underperform

Alongside this, we're seeing the bluechip memes perform well while the less-established memes are not performing too well. 

For now, we continue to have faith in the barbell portfolio of majors and bluechip memes.

TLDR

• Bitcoin's short-term direction is uncertain, but an upward trajectory, targeting $80K levels, is expected in the coming months.
• Ethereum is poised for a potential 10% surge to $4,400-$4,500 upon ETF approval and a $3,960 breakout.
• Solana will likely range between $152 and $190 in the short term, with a potential retest of $152 presenting a buying opportunity.
• WIF's breakout above $3.40 could catalyse a substantial rally towards $4.50 in the coming weeks.
• POPCAT, a potential bluechip meme, aims to break out above $0.53 to revisit lows of $0.70s, following WIF's lead.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. 

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BTC

• Bitcoin's Funding Rate is at 0.01%, which means there is a relatively even balance between Longs and Shorts, and therefore a squeeze against positioning in a specific direction is unlikely.
• The Open Interest (amount of leverage) for Bitcoin is still relatively high after we saw it more meaningfully ramp up following the news that the ETH ETF would likely be approved last week.

Technical analysis

• Following the breakout of the bull flag, price moved excellently to get above the $68,900 horizontal level. However, price has now fallen back below that level, and it is still fighting to reclaim it.
• Locally (on the smaller timeframes), we can see that Bitcoin is in a pennant pattern, having seemingly rejected from the horizontal level of $68,900.
• If the pennant pattern does break down, the local target would be $67,000 and then $63,400 below that.
• There is also a local level at $66,600, which if the pennant does break down, we see as potentially the level from which the price could bounce.
• If the pennant were to break to the upside, this would likely lead to a break above Bitcoin's all-time highs.

Cryptonary's take 

In the very short-term, Bitcoin is hard to call here. 

Over the coming weeks, we expect Bitcoin to see higher prices and eventually get to that green box in the $80Ks over the coming months. 

However, in the very short term, Bitcoin may retest somewhere in the $66Ks first before bouncing and moving higher again. 

But, to clarify this take again, it's very difficult to call Bitcoin here in the very short term, but we do expect more positive (upside) price action over the coming weeks and months.

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ETH

• Market-mechanics-wise, ETH has a Funding Rate of 0.01%, while Open Interest is still at the record highs it shot up to last week on the ETF news.
• With Open Interest shooting higher (massive amount of leverage added) but with the Funding Rate still only at 0.01%, this means Longs and Shorts are relatively balanced.
• Shorts would be squeezed if price were to break out above $4,000. Below $3,770, longs would likely be squeezed.

Technical analysis

• ETH has found resistance at the horizontal resistance of $3,967 and, for now, initially seems to have rejected from that level.
• If the price were to break down that low, local support would be $3,650, and stronger horizontal support would be $3,485. However, we'd see this as unlikely with an ETF around the corner.
• The RSI on the Daily timeframe has put in a bearish divergence in overbought territory. This may catalyse a pullback to $3,650.
• Once ETH can breakout of the $3,967 horizontal resistance and the cycle high of $4,080, the next target would be $4,500.

Cryptonary's take 

Whilst it's possible that ETH is somewhat exhausted here in the short term, and a slight pullback may be on the cards for this week, we ultimately think the introduction of an ETF in the coming weeks/months should be very positive for ETH's price action. 

In the very short term, prices may be range-bound between $3,650 and $3,960, but upon a breakout of $3,960, we'd expect ETH to see a possible 10% push higher to the $4,400 to $4,500 zone.

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SOL

• SOL's Open Interest also increased quite significantly last week on the ETH ETF news, but it's still at a level that's lower than the excesses we saw back in March.
• In addition, the Funding Rate for SOL is 0.01%, indicating an even balance between Longs and Shorts.

Technical analysis

• One positive to take here is that SOL is currently still in its local uptrend and well above the horizontal support level of $152.
• The negative here is that from a TA perspective, it looks possible that price can break down and retest the $152 horizontal level. Although, if this were to happen, it would likely be a nice long-term buying opportunity.
• We can identify a range between $152 and $172, and SOL is towards the top of that range, which is positive.
• The RSI is in the middle territory, so it doesn't provide headwinds for price action in the near term.

Cryptonary's take 

SOL is also tricky to call here. It's possible that for more weeks, SOL will remain range-bound between $152 and the local highs of $190. If the price were to retest that level in the short term, $152 would likely be a good entry price for a long-term buy. 

In the mid-and long-term, I (Tom) still fully expect SOL to be considerably higher in the coming months (Q3/Q4). Once SOL breaks out above $205, it likely will quickly drop to $250. However, in the meantime, it's possible we just have more time during the summer, when prices are range-bound. 

The real action is likely to return towards the end of summer. This may sound relatively boring, but sometimes, this is the case with markets. In the meantime, blue chip memes may perform well while SOL is range bound but at this higher level between $152 and $190. 

Let's get to 2 of those below.

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WIF

• Firstly, note that the below chart is the 12-hour timeframe rather than the daily.
• Today, the daily close will be important as we have had a breakout of the downtrend line. Now, WIF has been able to get above two key horizontal levels, $3.15 and $3.39. We'd like the Daily candle closure today to close above $3.40 to potentially see a more considerable upside for WIF in the upcoming weeks.
• Even upon a positive close today, it's possible that price will retest $3.40 in the coming days. If it does, you want to see this level hold as support and provide a new base for price to go substantially higher.
• What's important here is that WIF seems to have risen above the horizontal resistance of $3.40; hence, a positive close today is needed to cement this.

Cryptonary's take 

This is what we've been waiting for for WIF. 

A breakout above $3.40 would likely see WIF run considerably higher and likely retest $4.50, which may come in the coming weeks if WIF can close above $3.40 today, retest that level over the coming days, and flip this prior resistance into new support. 

If WIF does this, then $4.50 is likely to be the next target, then that'll be the telling point if we get drastically higher or not. 

All in all, WIF looks very positive here. What we also note is the outperformance. ALTS are struggling, and weaker memes are also not performing too well. The alpha is in the majors (BTC, ETH, and SOL) and then the bluechip Memes (PEPE, WIF, POPCAT).

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POPCAT

• Firstly, note the 12-hour timeframe rather than the 1D timeframe on the charting.
• Secondly, we're very pleased to see POPCAT find support at that $0.34 level, bounce from there, and then price breaking out of the downtrend line and putting in a much more meaningful bounce.
• For POPCAT, there are three key horizontal levels: $0.40, $0.47, and $0.53. Price now finds itself between $0.47 and $0.53, currently using $0.47 as support, with $0.53 having just proven to be resistance.
• A breakout of $0.53 would likely send POPCAT back to the highs in the low $0.70s.
• However, on the downside, if POPCAT cannot hold above $0.47, then $0.40 is likely the landing zone, and that level would need to hold ideally if bullish momentum is to be maintained.

Cryptonary's take 

POPCAT is becoming increasingly seen as one of the potential bluechip memes of this cycle, particularly in the last month or so when other cat tokens/memes have bled, while POPCAT hasn't and has actually held at a relatively high level. 

Remember, on March 1st, POPCAT broke out past $0.01 (yes, that's 1 cent). POPCAT has also been beta for WIF, meaning it usually follows. So, for all those holding POPCAT, you should be cheering the WIF break out above $3.40, as that may mean POPCAT follows it and breaks out in the coming days/week. 

The current price range is $0.40 to $0.53. A breakout above $0.53, and we're back in full bull mode. We think it will come; it just may take more time. 

Let's see what we get.