On the ETFs, we expect Grayscale to continue putting supply-side pressure on the market with their outflows.
Long-term, we expect this capital to flow back in.
We think the backflow will be into cheaper ETF alternatives (Blackrock, etc.), but these players will wait to see how liquidity issues play out in March – i.e., how severe it is –before buying.
Either way, there should be some fear at some point that brings markets lower.
That would signal these participants to begin dipping their toes back in again.
Mechanics-wise, it’s much better. Funding is slightly less than 0.01%, which means there's no heavy weighting to Longs or Shorts. This is positive.
Alongside this, the Open Interest is back down to $16b, down from $19b, which is a much better sign of a healthier leverage market.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.
Technical analysis
- Price has filled the first bear flag target we outlined when the bear flag started forming.
- The first bear flag target also converges with one of the main horizontal supports at $40,900. This level has acted as major support for price several times now. However, the more it is retested, the weaker it becomes.
- While price remains within the main range between $40,900 and $44,000, BTC can still make a meaningful bounce.
- $42,000 is a local resistance to the upside.
- We've now identified a major macro buying level: the yellow box ($33,900 to $36,500).
- The RSI has now pulled back and out of overbought territory for the first time since December 4th.
Cryptonary's take
Even though Bitcoin is at a key support level of $40,900, it has been tested several times now, and overall, BTC is looking heavy.There may be a small bounce in the next week, but we wouldn't be surprised if there weren’t. We also see BTC trading 10% lower than the current price in the coming 2-10 weeks.
We will carefully assess price action for long-term buys if BTC gets to $38k. But, for now, the target for long-term buys is the yellow box, priced between $33,900 and $36,500.
We have a March target for this area to be hit. If we're given these prices, look at it as a phenomenal long-term buying opportunity.
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