For context, these positions have been locked up for three years, so understandably, we're seeing some selling.
This, in turn, means the selling of Bitcoin, as we saw in Friday's close last week. It is a big day today.
Let's get into it.
What inferences can we draw from TradFi?
To gauge this slightly better, we turn to the TradFi products for an early, pre-market view. For this, we can look at Coinbase, Microstrategy and Marathon Digital stock prices to see how they're trading pre-market.All three have seen major declines over the past 7-10 trading days as TradFi has sold its positions into the ETF. That’s partly why we were more confident that BTC would sell off after the ETF was approved.
What you'd now want to see is for these stocks to bounce to show buying has come back. If they don't bounce back, that would be a concern. It would suggest TradFi is sitting on the sides.
If these stocks don't bounce, it's also possible inflows go into the ETFs (rather than back into those stocks), so this is also something we need to watch out for.
What's also important to note is that the S&P is opening lower today, so it may be the case that it's just a general risk-off environment for today. This is something to also take note of.
What to expect on the macro front
We'll keep this part brief. This week is quiet on the data front, but we do have a lot of Fed speak. Essentially, we see Fed members likely to push back on rate cuts in March just to slightly reset the market’s expectations.We may see rate cuts begin in March, especially if there are issues with liquidity in the Repo markets (this is where we see a problem happening in March/April that'll send the markets lower before the Fed steps in).
However, it's more likely rate cuts begin in the April/May meeting - the meeting is two days and is on the last day of April and the first day of May.
Cryptonary's take
The above outlines the key things we are watching out for today.However, we actually quite like a lot of the altcoin setups here, and our thinking is that if BTC can hold up and not puke out today from the GBTC selling, then alts could have a nice few days of performance here.
If BTC holds up, we like SOL and LINK for further upside in the coming week. But again, that’s only if BTC holds up.
Let's go!!!
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