Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
- BTC's Open Interest has pulled back on this price pullback, whilst the Funding Rate has turned negative. This suggests that late Longs have been flushed, and that Shorts have now chased the move down.
Technical analysis
- BTC formed a Head & Shoulders pattern which has seen a price breakdown as we expected it would.
- Price is now putting in a bearish retest, where price has moved back up to retest the underside of the resistance.
- The price range now (that might act as resistance) is between $102,500 and $105,000.
- Beyond that, the main horizontal resistance is at $107,000.
- The next zone of support (sub $100k) is at the Yellow Box we have identified. This is the range between $95,700 and $98,900.
- The RSI has pulled back from overbought territory and it's now back into middle territory.
- Next Support: $98,900
- Next Resistance: $106,900
- Direction: Bearish
- Upside Target: $106,900
- Downside Target: $95,700
Cryptonary's take
BTC looks to be putting in a bearish retest of the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern that it has recently broken down from. Our expectation is that price will continue to trend lower over the coming 1-2 weeks, and price will eventually fill the Yellow box between $95,700 and $98,900.We will assess at the time as to whether we repurchase BTC if it reaches the Yellow box zone. An invalidation of our thesis will be a breakout above $107k, although we're not expecting this to happen as the macro is still uncertain with the overall level of uncertainty and BTC ETF flows waning.
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