WTF is happening to WIF and  POPCAT?

Unsurprisingly, the gloomy sentiment has overshadowed the market as many coins continue to retrace from recent highs.

This brings us to two meme coins we covered in December 2023: WIF and POPCAT.

So far, in 2024, WIF is down 53%, and POPCAT is down 37%.

Both are memecoins; they are the kind of bets you place with money you can afford to lose, but let’s face it: no one likes losing money – no matter how small.

So, it’s time for an update. You can catch up on our previous WIF and POPCAT reports for additional context if you are new to these memecoins.

Let’s go!

Will WIF regain momentum?

Let’s start with price action.

During the last top, we shared an update on WIF in which we said, “after such a phenomenal run, taking out your initial investment and securing some profits would be wise.”

If you have taken profits, you have done very well. 

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

But will WIF regain momentum and get back to winning ways?

Well, a large part of that depends on whether WIF is really a beta play for SOL.

A joke often backs the entire speculative value of meme coins, and they usually don't have serious considerations behind them.

But when we looked at WIF, the joke seemed to have an interesting mathematical advantage. 

We looked at historical daily price changes of SOL and WIF and found a significant relationship between these assets.

 

Historically, WIF’s price changes in the same direction as SOL’s price; however, it has a higher coefficient. More precisely, it has 𝜷 = 1.87 and 𝙥 < 0.000

In other words, most of the time, WIF price changes in the same direction as SOL’s price, however, with (a + 1.95X) bigger magnitude (where a is constant).

Of course, the reverse holds; declines in SOL’s price will be expressed with a bigger magnitude (a + 1.95X) (where a is constant) on WIF’s trading price.

So, in summary:

• All things being equal, SOL’s price needs to change positively slightly over 7%  for WIF to have a positive price change. 
• However, the more significant the % change in SOL’s price, the more significant the % changes in WIF.
• The beta factor is also valid on the reverse. When SOL experiences price losses, WIF will experience bigger losses. 
• The beta is not set in stone and will continue to change as more trading data is recorded. 
• This is a mathematical-based function that assumes that all other variables remain intact. In reality, other variables that influence the actual trading price of WIF won’t remain intact, and actual performance may differ from this analysis.
• But long story short, if you are bullish on SOL, WIF can be your beta play!

Now, what's new with WIF?

Let’s dig deeper into what has changed since our last update.

WIF holders are increasing

Since we last published the report on WIF, the number of holders has increased from 23,500 to 33,125 (40% increase), which suggests that the narrative around $WIF is not slowing down despite the price slump.

Whales are not selling WIF

The second point is that none of the top 10 WIF holders from our original report have sold their tokens. In contrast, a new player entered the party and accumulated almost $14m in $WIF. 

This whale is now the largest holder and holds almost 8% of the total supply. As a result, the top 10 holders now collectively own 20.6% of the supply.

What does this tell us? Large holders still believe in the potential of $WIF.

We will continue actively monitoring large holders and updating our community if anything major changes.

The social narrative continues to grow

One interesting tidbit about WIF is that even though the coin is new, the meme has existed since 2019. So, its meme culture has a familiarity element that keeps it afloat.

And that’s partly why it isn’t surprising that the number of followers on Twitter consistently keeps growing.

More importantly, the narrative around $WIF on social media is still gaining momentum.

Gemini

Founder and CEO of Messari

The time factor

Of the thousands of memecoins that launch in each bull cycle, only a few live long enough to attain blue-chip meme status.

If we look at widely accepted memecoins such as Doge, Shiba, and Bonk, it took them at least one year to gain this status.

For example, for Doge, it took six years

For SHIBA, it took two years

For Bonk, it took around one year.

Similarly, we do not expect WIF to rank among the top memes overnight.

Granted, we aren't saying you'll need to wait a few years for WIF to deliver on its promise, but if we are keeping it real, WIF’s on-chain age is only two months old.  And since WIF’s larger holders continue to hodl, new holders are joining the fray, and the social narrative isn’t slowing down; WIF still has time more than enough time to establish itself as a blue-chip meme coin. 

Technical analysis

It's broken below a key horizontal support of $0.12 that it couldn't get back above and hold.

However, price has now found some support between $0.07 and $0.08.

The key here to see more major upside will be if price can break out of the downtrend line, if so, $0.12 would be the first target.

If price doesn't reject at $0.12, then we could see $0.1587.

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Can POPCAT still pop?

Now, let’s have a look at our Asian bet.

Let’s start with price action.

As we can see, POPCAT followed the bearish scenario in our report and dropped around 50-60% since we shared the report.

Memecoins can be extremely volatile, and this price action is a great example.

Let’s dig deeper into what has changed since our last update.

Token holders aren’t growing fast enough

We start by looking at holders.

The total number of holders negligibly increased from 11,090 to 11,536 since we last shared the report on POPCAT.

This suggests that POPCAT is not gaining much traction.

Whales are holding and adding to their positions

Looking at the top 10 holders, whales are still holding,  and some of them even added to their positions. This is a good sign suggesting that big players think this coin may still have its day in the limelight.

The social following is growing 

Despite slow growth in the number of holders, POPCAT’s Twitter following seems to have experienced more growth since we last shared the report.

It grew from 3,490 to 5,114 followers (a 28% increase in 10 days). 

Technical analysis

Price broke out of the downtrend line we posted in the Discord a few days ago.

Price has now found resistance at the key horizontal level of $0.0083 and is rangebound between there and $0.0040.

The price will need to get back above $0.0083 to see a more sustained upside.

If it does, $0.014 would be the major short-term target.

Cryptonary’s take

On WIF, from on-chain data, we can see that large holders didn’t sell their position, which hints that they still see potential in this dog. Social presence is rising, and the number of WIF holders keeps growing.

We believe WIF still has room to run. If you have a WIF bag and have taken profit already, it might be worth waiting to see how this plays out. 

On POPCAT, this meme coin is yet to live up to its potential. The development has been less encouraging. The social narrative isn’t growing fast, and holders have not substantially increased. And Asia hasn’t yet woken up for POPCAT. However, top whales haven’t sold their positions but instead added. 

Based on the on-chain data and social following, it is safe to say that people are watching POPCAT but are not yet buying it. 

Therefore, if you still hold POPCAT, consider it a “zero or hero” case and ride it. 

If you are new to WIF and POPCAT, it might be best to wait to see how the ETF decision plays out and, with that, the rest of the crypto market before you take any new position here. 

Cryptonary OUT!