TLDR 📄

• Mt. Gox repayments still uncertain; investors await funds.
• Institutions use MSTR as a proxy for a Bitcoin ETF.
• Rising Bitcoin hash rate reveals bullish sentiments.
• BTC is “bullishly” consolidating under the $30,000 resistance.
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Disclaimer: Not financial nor investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your responsibility and yours only.

Mt. Gox repayments aren’t as close as they say they are 💴

Once upon a time, Mt Gox was the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, handling over 70% of all BTC transactions. But in 2014, disaster struck when 850,000 bitcoins (worth $450 million at the time) mysteriously vanished, leaving thousands of investors devastated.

The exchange declared bankruptcy. The founder, Mark Karpeles, was arrested for his alleged role in the debacle. Despite years of legal proceedings and asset liquidations, Mt. Gox users still haven't been fully repaid. Victims continue to await their funds anxiously, feeling the weight of their losses and the bitter sting of a dream-turned nightmare.

Creditors finally received an update on April 6 as the deadline for submitting repayment information passed. This doesn’t mean the BTC will be released to creditors immediately, leading to severe selling pressure. Mt Gox owns 140,000 BTC ($4B), 140,000 BCH ($17M), and 69 Billion Yen ($550M).

The first payments will be made from Yen reserves, and the BTC repayments are expected to happen by October 31, though the deadline is subject to extension.

So creditors will need to wait just a bit longer.

MSTR is the Bitcoin ETF 🏦

The world has been waiting for a Bitcoin ETF. Especially crypto holders, as it could open up massive floodgates of capital.

Owning Bitcoin isn’t easy, and crypto comes with many regulatory risks. That’s especially true for institutions due to a lack of regulatory clarity. This has discouraged TradFi investors from pumping capital into BTC and the crypto ecosystem.

An ETF might solve this problem. But today, institutions seem to be adopting Microstrategy (MSTR) stock as a proxy-ETF.

No one buys MSTR for their tech. The attractive element of MSTR’s stock is the fact that they own a ton of BTC.

New ATHs for the Bitcoin hash rate

The Bitcoin hash rate is a measure of the total computing power used by miners to validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain. It is measured in hashes per second. A higher hash rate indicates increased network security, as it becomes more difficult for any single entity to launch a 51% attack and compromise the network.

When the Bitcoin hash rate reaches an all-time high, it means that miners are investing more resources into mining because they expect future price appreciation. When miners are bullish on the price, they invest more in mining hardware, which leads to an increase in the hash rate. As the hash rate increases, the competition among miners increases, resulting in a more secure and robust network.

A rising hash rate often coincides with a growing network effect as more miners and investors are drawn toward Bitcoin. This increased interest contributes to higher demand, leading to a higher Bitcoin price.

TLDR: A succession of hash-rate ATHs means miners are more bullish than ever on BTC. That is why they are spending more on BTC production.

Price chart 📈

Bitcoin’s price has reached our first target and is currently consolidating under the $29,000-$30,000 resistance area.

A chart represents the actions of all buyers and sellers. Technical analysis is therefore not a random art, but a science. When the price consolidates under resistance and keeps testing it, it means buyers continue to push and are depleting the sell orders present at that resistance. The weaker the selling pressure becomes, the greater the chance buyers have of piercing through the resistance and pushing prices higher. That seems to be the case today. There is a 70% chance it leads to a $35,000 price per BTC.

Nonetheless, we think it is wise to wait for a breakout before jumping to positions.

Bitcoin ecosystem 🌐

Ordinals (NFTs)

The number of inscriptions/mints continues to grow, with especially high numbers on April 2 and 4.

[caption id="attachment_270335" align="aligncenter" width="781"] Number of inscriptions.[/caption]

This increased supply doesn’t seem to be met by increased demand, however, as marketplace volumes are low - see below 👇🏼

[caption id="attachment_270334" align="aligncenter" width="1095"] Volume by marketplace.[/caption]

Bitcoin-Fi

The Bitcoin-Fi ecosystem continues to be quiet with few changes. The price increases of previous weeks were part of a mere hype cycle.

Cryptonary’s take 🎯

Mt. Gox claims are getting close after nine years of waiting, but the wait isn’t over, despite what you read elsewhere. The selling pressure from this “unlock” event likely happens closer to Q4 2023.

Institutions and miners are both signalling that they have become more bullish on Bitcoin’s future, likely as a form of gold 2.0.

In the near term, the BTC price has decent odds of flying to $35,000, but it is not advisable to long resistances.

As always, thank you for reading 🙏🏼