This is the Memecoin Supercycle. As far as we are concerned, the bluechip memes for this season are WIF and POPCAT. We called both coins back in December 2023, and if you didn't fade our calls, you are most likely in a 5-digit percentage gain already. 

But like we said, when we started the Memecoin Supercycle series, we are deep in the memecoin trenches 24/7, actively looking for fresh opportunities to present to you. 

And today, we expand on a coin that has been on our radar over the past few weeks.

The only challenge is this: as interesting as the meme is, the stars aren't quite aligning because of the current market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

---

Introducing Smoking Chicken Fish (SCF)

Imagine, if you will, a chicken, but not just any chicken. 

This one has the head of a fish and is not content with being a bizarre hybrid. It's puffing on a cigarette like it's contemplating the meaning of life or perhaps the next big Pump in its market cap.

Humour, especially absurd humour, plays a vital role in building memecoin communities. Smoking Chicken Fish is designed to be playful, entertaining, and absurdly relatable. The absurdity of a "chicken-fish hybrid that's also smoking" pushes the boundaries of normalcy, encouraging people to bond over the ridiculousness of the concept. 

Shared laughter fosters a collective identity, turning followers into devotees of the meme. This humour acts as a glue, connecting individuals with similar worldviews and creating a self-perpetuating cycle of engagement.

Let's dial it back a bit.

Two weeks ago, we wrote a report about the sh*tfest happening on Pump.fun and how most wallets that interacted with the platform are at a loss. We specifically noted that the majority of Pump.fun users are in the red, and most of the profitable ones are either barely breaking even or making negligible gains.

One reason for the low profitability is that most of Pump.fun token launches don't graduate to Raydium. The entire premise behind launching a coin on Pump.fun is for it to serve as a test launch of sorts. Each coin on Pump is a fair launch with no presale and no team allocation, but it won't be tradable outside of Pump. 

However, if enough people believe in the coin enough to buy and push it past the $60k market cap, Pump.fun will automatically close trading on its platform and will migrate the token to Raydium. Reaching Raydium is called 'filling the bonding curve', and that's where the real party starts because the coin is now available to a larger audience. 

So, what does all this have to do with Smoking Chicken Fish (SCF)?

Well, analysing the last 25 days of data from Pump.fun:

1. The median percentage of tokens that graduated from the platform to Raydium relative to the number of tokens created is 1.29%.
2. The median percentage of cumulative tokens that graduated from the platform to Raydium relative to the cumulative number of tokens created is 1.32%.

In practice, this data means that for every 100 tokens created on Pump.fun, only about 1 or 2 tokens are likely to graduate. 

More specifically, if you were to buy 100 tokens, based on the median daily graduation rate of 1.32%, you could expect that approximately 1 or 2 of those tokens would graduate to Raydium to then have a shot at competing with the rest of the memecoins in the already-saturated market. 

TLDR: The odds of a memecoin making it out of Pump.fun is incredibly low, and after making it into Raydium, the coin then has to compete with the thousands of memecoins launched on other platforms.

Bringing it all together, Smoking Chicken Fish (SCF) is one of the few Pump.fun coins that have managed to break out into Raydium and have a decent shot at competing for a spot in the big league.

But why does it have a shot at the big leagues?

---

Understand the Smoking Chicken Fish meme

Smoking Chicken Fish (SCF) is an emerging memecoin project that has gained attention for its unique blend of humour and community engagement. 

But this is not a new meme; we dare say this meme (not the coin) is almost as old as Bitcoin. Yeah, it sounds blasphemous, but that is the truth.

The first proven mention of this meme was sometime in January 2012 when it surfaced on Imgur before making its way to Reddit on r/wtf.

Then, four years ago, it surfaced again in r/memes on Reddit.

It has a strong and growing community known as the Church of the Smoking Chicken Fish. This community presents itself as playful with its humorous commandments (Chickemandments) and rituals. 

Jokes aside, the meme caught our attention with its potential for virality. It positions itself as the first official religion on Solana, with weekly church times on Wed/Sat at 8pm. The narrative is fresh and can go viral.

SCF is what you call the diamond in the rough. 

---

Why we are optimistic about SCF's prospects

Smoking Chicken Fish is still a fledgling meme and needs to deliver on its promise of virality. It passed a rug test, and the token's distribution looks good relative to its market cap. As we anticipated, it crashed 80% after a very strong performance and is now showing signs of recovery.  

But that's the thing: the best time to position for the maximum upside possible in a memecoin is when its potential is gathering momentum – the coin becomes increasingly established, and the upsides generally tend to diminish. High risk; high rewards; mid risk mid reward; the lower the risk, the lower the rewards. If you want mid-risk memecoins, check out WIF and POPCAT. 

Smoking Chicken Fish is still a high-risk play, and there's a chance that it may never attain escape velocity. But for a coin that made it out of the Pump.fun shitfest, we think this coin has good odds of success. 

Now that we've established the sort of risk you are potentially taking let's explore why this coin could win in the right market conditions.

Growing and active community

Smoking Chicken Fish has about 11,800 holders, but that's not the important thing.

The chart below shows how its holder number has changed over the last 30 days. 

The blue bars show the holder's number, and the pink squiggly line shows the market cap. You'll observe an initial sharp drop in holder numbers, which coincided with early Pump.fun buyers jeeting after the coin made its debut on Radium and then went on to hit an ATH of $0.1441 on August 3. 

Afterwards, the coin experienced about three weeks of consolidation, trending lower in the holder count and market cap. This led to the coin's first 86% drawdown, which led to the local bottom of $0.02 on August 21.

Now, this is what separates winning memecoins from deadcoins. The first 80% drawdown is an important milestone. Memecoins that survive that milestone often have a committed community of holders who believe in the meme and won't exit at the first sign of trouble. Since then, the holder count has gradually increased even though the coin is still 260% away from ATH.

And what's more, the community is actively promoting the Smoking Chicken's message.

Memeability + virality 

What you'll refer to as the "fundamental" value of a memecoin is its memeability and potential for virality. Memecoins are supposed to be funny, entertaining, and bring a community together. Smoking Chicken Fish has decent odds on the memeability front.

The meme has been around for over a decade and has some sense of permanence. More so, many people who have seen or interacted with it over the years can easily recall it and tap into a sense of nostalgia.

Second, the meme has the potential to attract new audiences because, at the heart of community-building around an idea, particularly in the world of memecoins, is a sense of shared identity. 

Solana's branding as "the people's blockchain" provides fertile ground for such ideas to take root, but it's the peculiarities of the meme culture that catalyse deeper engagement. Smoking Chicken Fish taps into a rich reservoir of memeability and nostalgia, offering a whimsical metaphor that draws people in. However, the true strength of its appeal lies in its positioning as more than just a memecoin—it's a religion.

The Power of lore and ritual

Communities with strong identities often form around compelling narratives, and Smoking Chicken Fish capitalises on this by building a cohesive lore—complete with chickemandments, scriptures, and mock religious services. 

This structure mirrors historical cult-like movements, which use rituals and mythology to deepen a sense of belonging among followers. By positioning itself as a religion, Smoking Chicken Fish gives people a reason to engage on a level that goes beyond profit speculation or fandom; it becomes a shared experience filled with symbolism that can be interpreted in various ways, giving each follower a personalised connection.

Why cult-like followings emerge

Cult-like followings often arise when an idea taps into a basic human desire for meaning, belonging, and identity. The absurdity of Smoking Chicken Fish—a smoking, hybrid creature—is the perfect hook because it's both familiar and alien. It creates a shared in-joke, a sense of exclusivity that binds the community. Those who "get it" feel like insiders, while the outside world remains puzzled. This sense of being part of an exclusive group that has its own language, rituals, and lore fosters deeper community ties, much like any religious or ideological movement.

Not competing with bluechip memes 

The third, and perhaps most important, reason to be optimistic about SCF's prospects is that it is not competing with bluechip memes like DOGE, PEPE, SHIB, WIF, or POPCAT. Despite the overall momentum, one of the key reasons people lose money in the memecoin supercycle is the fragmentation of liquidity and attention.

In any category—dog-themed coins, cat-themed coins, or political memecoins—there will always be one or two flagship coins that dominate attention. In contrast, dozens or hundreds of copycat coins fight over the scraps. These imitators rarely succeed because they dilute both the liquidity and focus of investors, preventing any from reaching the critical mass necessary to go viral. Instead, liquidity is split among too many projects, none of which gain enough traction to break through.

The tribal nature of memecoins

Adding to this challenge is the deeply tribal nature of memecoin communities. Investors in flagship memecoins are protective of their "bags" and have no incentive to promote or entertain competing projects. This tribalism means that established holders rarely shift their attention or liquidity to similar coins, as doing so would undermine their investments. Without the participation of these early heavy hitters, new coins struggle to gain the liquidity depth required to boost their profile.

In contrast, Smoking Chicken Fish (SCF) bypasses this liquidity fragmentation because it is completely original. By not aligning itself with pre-existing themes—like dogs, cats, or politics—it avoids directly competing for attention in these already crowded categories. SCF is a chicken-fish hybrid with a unique, quirky twist, giving it a level of memeability that stands out in an oversaturated market. This originality allows SCF to draw in fresh liquidity and attention without facing the resistance that copycat coins experience.

Smoking Chicken Fish doesn't need to battle over fragmented liquidity pools within any particular memecoin tribe. Instead, it has a cleaner runway to build its community without facing the liquidity drain or divided attention that comes with trying to emulate an already dominant meme.

---

SCF's market dynamics and analysis

Before digging into the analysis, it is important to note that SCF's price is generally more likely to grind lower. The main level we're eyeing to build a position for the longer term is the $0.02 level. If it requires us to wait more weeks for this, then so be it. We'll be patient rather than chase price.  

Top wallets analysis

SCF's token distribution across the top wallets offers valuable insight into how concentrated the holdings are and what percentage of supply is in the hands of large holders. This can influence the token's price volatility, as significant movements by these holders could impact market behaviour.

The top wallets represent a considerable portion of SCF's supply, but liquidity pools like Raydium and Orca are excluded from the average calculation when analysing them since they serve a distinct function within the ecosystem. Excluding these pools provides a clearer view of how individual wallets hold SCF.

• Top 10 wallets (excluding liquidity pools): When the Raydium and Orca liquidity pools are removed from the top 10 wallets, the remaining eight wallets hold 15.77% of the total supply. This represents a substantial concentration of holdings but also indicates that distribution among individual wallets is not overly skewed toward a single holder. Key points:
  • Excluding liquidity pools, the average holding for the top 8 wallets is 1.97% per wallet.
  • These wallets indicate high conviction among large holders, but such concentration could result in significant market movements should any of these wallets start selling.

• Top 20 and 100 wallets: Expanding the analysis to the top 20 and 100 wallets, we observe more diversified holdings, although large holders still maintain a substantial portion of the supply. The top 20 wallets hold 27.31% of the total SCF supply, while the top 100 wallets control 55.85%. Key points:
  • The average holding for the top 20 wallets (excluding liquidity pools) is 1.37% per wallet, showing moderate distribution among top holders.
  • The average holding for the top 100 wallets is approximately 0.56% per wallet, reflecting that while whales hold a large share, the token distribution is becoming more decentralised as more wallets enter the ecosystem.
  • As SCF continues to grow, we expect to see further distribution among newer wallets, reducing concentration risk.

DEX activity

Regarding decentralised exchange (DEX) activity, SCF has maintained a consistent level of trading over the last few weeks, with some notable spikes in volume and trade numbers. 

The graph below indicates a notable peak in trading activity around August 5, with 34.6K trades executed and over $28M in trading volume on that day alone. Following this peak, trading activity saw a downward trend, with periodic spikes that suggest opportunistic trading events potentially tied to news or narrative-driven momentum.

Key observations:

• Average daily trading volume fluctuated between $7M and $15M for most of the last month.
• Spikes in trading volume were often accompanied by significant price movements, showing that SCF's price remains highly reactive to volume surges.
• DEX activity consistently declined towards the end of August, but a resurgence in early September suggests potential accumulation phases by traders and holders alike.

Whale accumulation

In addition to the strong technical structure, large holders (whales) have been accumulating SCF, signalling strong confidence in its long-term potential:

• 946K SCF tokens are currently held by whales (wallets with a minimum of 10K SCF), reflecting a significant level of smart money interest.
• Between August 13 and 20, 2024, there was a 32% increase in smart money holders, indicating that institutional or high-net-worth investors are positioning themselves in anticipation of further bullish momentum.

Technical analysis 

Key price levels and recent market behaviour:

• Launch date: July 21, 2024
• Initial market cap growth: SCF's market cap surged to $60 million within four days of its launch.
• All-time high (ATH): On August 3, 2024, SCF reached an ATH of $144 million.
• Primary support: The previous support range of $35m—$40 m was broken recently, with SCF briefly dipping below $30m before bouncing back and reclaiming $35m. Holding this level is critical for a sustained bullish structure.
• Downside support: The new downside support is located between $18m and $23 m. This accumulation zone will act as a safety net for buyers looking to enter during significant dips, providing strong long-term entry points.
• Current market cap: As of early September 2024, SCF is trading around a $35m support zone, indicating stability.

Current price action:

• Wedge invalidated: The latest falling wedge pattern has been invalidated, though the previous falling wedge structure remains intact. This suggests that, while there was a temporary deviation, the broader bullish structure could still play out over time.
• 4-hour downtrend trendline: SCF is currently consolidating below a 4-hour downtrend trendline, with the price attempting to hold above $35m. Establishing a base here would be a significant signal of strength, offering a potential foundation for future rallies.
• Potential breakout: A breakout above the 4-hour downtrend trendline could lead to a rally toward $67m in the short to medium term. The price action suggests that SCF is consolidating for a potential upward move, contingent on reclaiming key levels next.

Key Levels:

• Support zones:
  • $35m (current support, trying to reclaim).
  • $18m - $23m (downside support and accumulation zone).
• Resistance zones:
  • $67 million (intermediate resistance).
  • $87 million (strong resistance, next potential breakout level).
  • $106 million (major resistance above $88M).

If SCF breaks through $87m, the next resistance level at $106m will likely be tested. However, a failure to hold the $35m support would make the $18m and $23m demand zone the next attractive level for buyers.

Based on the charts, this coin has the potential to do well once a real risk-on attitude returns to the market. However, it may take weeks, potentially even up until the election, to see risk-on return. 

In the meantime, we believe that price is more likely to grind lower generally. The main level we're eyeing to build a position for the longer term is the $0.02 level. If it requires us to wait more weeks for this, then so be it. We'll be patient rather than chase price. 

---

What could go wrong with SCF?

While Smoking Chicken Fish (SCF) presents itself as an exciting, memeable project with strong potential, the inherent risks of the memecoin space cannot be ignored. In memecoins, being a great meme doesn't automatically translate into commercial viability. 

SCF sounds like an exciting meme with lots of potential. However, with memecoins, there are no guarantees and being a great meme doesn't automatically mean a coin will be commercially viable. 

If you've been following Cryptonary's thesis on memecoins, you'll recall that two critical factors determine their success: liquidity and attention. Like any other memecoin, SCF is vulnerable to losing either or both.

1. The short attention span in crypto 

The first and most pressing risk is the crypto market's notoriously short attention span, particularly in the memecoin sector. Even though SCF has a strong and quirky narrative, the novelty could wear off quickly. Memecoins thrive on virality, and sustaining attention is often an uphill battle. With market conditions currently leaning towards consolidation—and some even suggesting a slightly bearish tone—there's a risk that SCF may struggle to maintain visibility and engagement in the current market circumstances.

Our technical analysis suggests that the $0.02 price level may be an optimal point to build a position, representing a 40% discount from current prices. However, if the price falls further, we could see time-based capitulation. Investors who bought in earlier might lose patience. As they lose patience and sell, it becomes more challenging for the token's price to recover, leading to more selling and eventually, most holders could abandon the project altogether.

2. The risk of being forgotten

Another significant risk arises when the next leg of the bull market eventually takes off. 

Memecoins, as part of their tribal and trend-driven nature, often see waves of new entrants and projects. When the bullish rally returns (which could be another couple of weeks or months away), there's a real possibility that the market's attention may shift to newer and shinier memecoins. 

With so many fresh projects emerging during bullish periods, the SCF narrative could easily be drowned out, causing it to be left behind and ultimately forgotten. This presents a classic risk for early-stage memecoins: even if they survive a bearish or consolidatory phase, they must still compete for attention when the bull market heats up again. 

If SCF fails to capture renewed interest during this phase, the liquidity could dry up, and without enough volume or community momentum, it might fail to regain its previous position.

3. Liquidity stagnation

Liquidity, the second pillar of memecoin success, poses its own risks for SCF. Fragmentation of liquidity is a recurring issue for memecoins. While SCF has thus far carved out a distinct niche, it could still face challenges in attracting enough sustained liquidity to support its growth. 

If newer memecoins capture the funds from most market participants during the next bull run, SCF could experience a liquidity crunch, making it difficult to maintain price stability or fund community initiatives.

Without fresh liquidity, SCF might also suffer from stagnation. If it doesn't gain new participants or investors, the token could find itself in a cycle of low volume, which often leads to lower interest from major liquidity providers or whales. The danger here is that, without a constant influx of liquidity, SCF could become irrelevant, even if the meme remains amusing.

4. Meme fatigue

One often overlooked risk in memecoins is the potential for over-reliance on the meme itself. While the Smoking Chicken Fish narrative is engaging and absurdly fun, memecoins can face the danger of meme fatigue. The audience might grow tired of the joke, especially if no new layers of narrative or community-building initiatives are introduced to keep the concept fresh and evolving. Memes need to adapt, and if SCF fails to innovate beyond its initial offering, it risks becoming stale.

---

How to buy Smoking Chicken Fish (SCF)

1. Buying on a centralised exchange

• Step 1: Choose a centralised exchange
  • Popular centralised exchanges that list SCF include MEXC and Gate.io.
• Step 2: Create and verify your account
  • Sign up for an account on the chosen exchange and go through the verification process,
• Step 3: Deposit funds
  • Deposit funds into your exchange account. You can typically use bank transfers, credit/debit cards, or cryptocurrency transfers.
  • Check the exchange's supported payment methods if you are depositing fiat currency (USD or EUR).
• Step 4: Buy SCF
  • Navigate to the trading section of the exchange.
  • Search for the SCF trading pair (e.g., SCF/USDT, SCF/SOL)
  • Decide the amount of SOL you want to purchase and choose between a market or limit order.
    • Market order: Buy SCF at the current market price.
    • Limit order: Set a specific price at which you want to buy SCF. The order will be fulfilled once the market reaches your specified price.
  • Review the order details and confirm the purchase.
• Step 5: Withdraw SCF to your wallet
  • After purchasing SCF, it's a good practice to withdraw the tokens to a secure wallet like Phantom for safekeeping.

2. Buying via Phantom wallet

• Step 1: Install Phantom wallet
  • Download and install the Phantom wallet extension for your browser from the official Phantom website.
  • Create a new wallet or import an existing one using your recovery phrase.
• Step 2: Secure your wallet
  • Write down and securely store your recovery phrase. This phrase is crucial for recovering your wallet in case of loss or device failure.
• Step 3: Fund your Phantom wallet
  • Deposit SCF directly into your Phantom wallet by transferring it from a centralised exchange where you've purchased SCF.
  • Alternatively, deposit other Solana-supported tokens stablecoins like USDT or USDC if you plan to swap them for SCF.
• Step 4: Use the built-in swap feature
  • Open the Phantom wallet and navigate to the "Swap" tab.
  • Choose the token you wish to swap (e.g., USDT) and select SCF as the output.
    • SCF contract address: GiG7Hr61RVm4CSUxJmgiCoySFQtdiwxtqf64MsRppump
  • Enter the amount you want to swap and review the transaction details, including the estimated network fees.
  • Confirm the transaction and approve it within the Phantom wallet.
• Step 5: Verify the transaction
  • Once the transaction is complete, you'll see the updated SCF balance in your Phantom wallet.

---

Cryptonary's take

Memecoins aren't just funny tokens with the potential to go viral; they're symbols that people rally around. For Smoking Chicken Fish, the meme's longevity means it taps into a cultural moment, giving followers something they can root for and share. It's not just about the financial prospects of the coin, but about the narrative and the inside jokes that come with it.

Recently, SCF has been making waves in the crypto market with significant price movements and community activities. Opinions and sentiments around SCF are mixed. While some are skeptical because of its Pump.fun origins, others see it as a genuine, community-driven project with the potential for substantial growth.

We think the Smoking Chicken Fish project is a fascinating example of how meme culture and cryptocurrency can intersect to create a unique community experience. While it's strong community engagement and humorous approach have attracted a dedicated following, it also carries significant risks typical of memecoins, such as short-lived attention spans, liquidity fragmentation, and potential meme fatigue.

As much as we love the creativity behind SCF, we won't be buying it for now. The risks outlined earlier—especially the possibility of being forgotten in a bull market and the fragmentation of liquidity—are enough to make us cautious.

Our focus remains on finding better entry points as the price continues to grind lower. Once we see a favourable setup, we'll consider riding the wave back up in the short-to-medium term and reassess the project.

Until then,

Cryptonary out!