The Solana ecosystem has witnessed an explosive growth as memes outperformed all other crypto assets within and outside Solana for almost a year. Two narratives have proven to be particularly successful: dogs and cats.

The dog narrative has been a longstanding favourite in the world of memecoins. Dogecoin, the original dog-themed meme, has paved the way for many other dog-inspired tokens. 

The cat narrative is a recent addition to the memecoin scene but has quickly gained traction. And among the cat-coins, POPCAT stands clear as a winner in this new category.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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A quick recap on POPCAT

What is POPCAT?

It’s simply a cat that pops! That’s all. This is a memecoin, and like we said in the report on WIF, “It makes no promises. It WON'T advance the frontiers of civilisation; it CAN'T activate a paradigm shift at the intersection of finance and technology; it is NOT a next-gen anything.” 

POPCAT was created as a light-hearted memecoin, drawing on the viral popularity of the “POPCAT” meme—a cartoon cat known for its humorous, popping mouth expression. 

However, despite its humorous origins, this memecoin is quickly establishing itself as a top contender within Solana and across the broader crypto market.

Understanding the POPCAT meme

The world is divided into cat lovers and dog lovers.  

Historically, dog-themed memecoins have dominated the space, with coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu capturing significant attention and market cap. 

However, we thought it was only fair that there’d be a meme coin for cat lovers, which was the basis of our December 2023 call to add POPCAT to your bags. 

POPCAT is a popular internet meme and clicker game. The game involves clicking on an image of a cat named Oatmeal to make it open and close its mouth in the shape of an 'O'. Each click contributes to the player's score and adds to their country's total on a global leaderboard. 

The game gained significant attention and became viral, especially in countries like Russia, the USA, and Australia.

POPCAT is the rising star in the Solana ecosystem, and it has been recording organic along the road – this organic growth is a rarity in the memecoin landscape where many coins rely heavily on marketing hype and artificial pumps. 

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The bullish case for POPCAT

Market potential

The market potential of POPCAT is quite intriguing, especially considering the recent surge in the popularity of memecoins. One of the most compelling aspects of POPCAT is its unique "cat" narrative. While there have been numerous dog-themed memecoins, the cat theme is fresh and new, setting POPCAT apart in a crowded market. This distinct narrative helps it capture and sustain the attention of investors and enthusiasts alike. By tapping into the untapped "cat" narrative and capitalising on the Solana ecosystem's advantages, POPCAT is well-positioned to ride the wave of memecoin popularity. 

First cat to $1b

Up until this cycle, cat memecoins were not a prominent trend. Their narrative had not been validated in the way dog-themed coins, such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, had been. And more importantly, no cat-themed memecoin has ever breached the $1 billion threshold – until POPCAT did it on July 21, 2024. 

POPCAT was the first cat-coin to break the billy curse, and that alone was enough momentum to build a conviction that this coin is a contender, not a pretender. Shortly after, tour favoured cat has breached yet another milestone - it broke a $2 mark

Why is the $1b mark a significant milestone? 

When a memecoin surpasses a market capitalisation of $1 billion, it signifies that the trend has not only emerged but also gained substantial acceptance and legitimacy within the crypto community. Hitting that market cap also confirms to HNIs, institutional participants, and tier-one crypto exchanges that the memecoin is worthy of their attention and time.

POPCAT's hitting the $1 price target embedded in the collective consciousness that cat-themed coins are capable of being in the “big league.” Further, in memecoins, the price itself is a fundamental aspect that reinforces the belief in its narrative. In other words, the higher the price goes, the more likely it is for the price to continue growing. Therefore, the $1b mark is important as it can be a precedent for reaching an escape velocity, establishing the winner as a top cat coin for multiple cycles ahead.

POPCAT is a true community coin

In its early stages, POPCAT faced coordination challenges between the community and developers. Recognising its potential, a prominent member of the Solana community acquired the rights to POPCAT. Following the acquisition, the new owner made the metadata of POPCAT immutable, ensuring that no changes could be made to its name, image, or token supply—even by the acquirer. This transformation marked a pivotal moment for POPCAT, solidifying its status as an immutable community-driven meme coin. With over 129,000 holders currently, the promotion and fate of POPCAT rest solely in the hands of its dedicated community.

Despite the recent turmoil in the memecoin market, POPCAT community is still active and is pushing the cat narrative. If the overall memecoin market makes a comeback and we see risk-on environment coming back, there is a decent chance that the top cat can reclaim $0.5 and even $1. However, we need to see how things play out with the broader market environment first.

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POPCAT ticks all the boxes

All memecoins are speculative, but there’s a difference between blind gambling and strategic memecoin investing. In mindless gambling, you are just throwing money at every coin with a memecoin tag and hoping that one of them wins enough to more than makeup for your losses on the others. With a strategic approach, you use qualitative reasoning and quants to understand what makes memecoins valuable and then choose a coin with higher odds of success. Here are some factors that elevate POPCAT from a mindless gamble to a strategic play.

Strong narrative

Our initial thesis for POPCAT was that the world is divided into cat lovers and dog lovers. And that when Asia wakes up to the memecoins, they would prefer cats and not go for dogs.

In various Asian cultures, cats are often associated with positive attributes such as luck, fortune, and prosperity. Knowing their psychometric properties, we suggested their preferences when they make their next moves. Indeed, 80% of memecoin trades occur during Asian trading hours, suggesting there are a lot of participants from Asia, which can indirectly explain the rise of cat memecoin in recent times.

However, the thesis for the POPCAT is starting to change. The narrative is shifting from “Beta for WIF” and the Asian market to a standalone narrative for POPCAT. It is now being spoken out as “DOGE of cats” and the first cat to break a billy curse. This massive improvement for the narrative and potential upside.

Fair distribution 

POPCAT has launched with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. These tokens have been fairly distributed through the natural memecoin cycle.  Notably, its broad distribution—boasting over 129,000 unique holders—exemplifies its commitment to decentralisation, ensuring that the community controls the supply rather than a select few influencers or celebrities. 

Throughout its journey, POPCAT has experienced several market-driven 80% drawdowns, followed by significant recoveries. These fluctuations have inadvertently tested the community's resilience and commitment, revealing those with "diamond hands” and laying the foundation for organic growth.

The memecoin's natural cycles of drawdowns and recoveries have played a crucial role in shaping the community. These challenges have helped to identify and reward the most steadfast holders, those who believe in the long-term potential of POPCAT, which is quite rare among memecoin communities. Further, like WIF, it has no VCs, team, or insiders. Its distribution is simple, pure, and fair.

A winning asset in a winning sector 

POPCAT has distinguished itself in the memecoin landscape through genuine, organic growth from the outset, setting it apart in an ecosystem often fueled by hype and fleeting speculation. This strategy safeguards against manipulative practices commonly associated with quick profit schemes.

Having transitioned beyond its speculative inception, POPCAT has reached the status of a blue-chip memecoin. This positioning suggests a favourable risk-reward balance with considerable potential for growth while the inherent risks diminish. Memecoins, with their viral nature and ability to capture public interest, have outperformed their technologically advanced counterparts in the last year or so, drawing capital and liquidity away from them during the risk-on environments. Even with the recent correction in the memecoin sector, POPCAT is still up almost 7,000% from where we called it.

POPCAT, in particular, is among the top winners in capitalising on this trend, siphoning market share from other altcoins and outpacing them during this cycle.

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Valuation exercise + price targets

Just like all other Cryptonary's meme picks, POPCAT has reached our initial base target of $1. Not only did it break the billy curse, but it ran all the way to $2, rewarding cat lovers with conviction along the way. 

However, as we can see, it sold off heavily since then, losing almost 90% of its value. Yes, memecoins are explosive on the upside, but they are also ruthless on the downside. Fortunately, we warned our community about upcoming corrections repeatedly here and here. Those who followed our calls could protect their capital and lock in profits. Currently it is consolidating around $0.2 and is still up almost 7,000% since our initial call. So, given the recent price action of POPCAT, what are our price targets? We believe that the base case for POP is $0.5, roughly 2x from here. Why? The memecoin sector is suffering from dispersion and the broader market environment is uncertain at the moment. Therefore, we remain conservative for now.

Our best case scenario is POPCAT is $1. If $0.50 holds as anew base, we could see a slow grind to $0.75 and eventually $1. Why not higher? We believe there are a lot of bagholders who will be happy to sell at breakeven, and therefore we think there will be a structural sell pressure on the cat.

To summarise:

• Base target: $0.5
• Best target:  $1

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Risks to consider before buying POPCAT

• Market risks 

Narrative-driven: Memecoins lack any utility in the traditional sense of this word. The price is driven by narrative and future expectations of profit. However, when market sentiments shift or the narrative loses momentum, memecoins can lose value drastically. This is essentially what is happening at the moment.

Volatility: Crypto is volatile. However, memecoins are volatile-squared. As mentioned earlier, a memecoin can go 80% down in a matter of days. This extreme volatility can be attributed to their speculative nature, driven primarily by hype and market sentiment rather than underlying value or utility. The rapid and significant price swings can lead to substantial losses, making it a high-risk investment. Enduring such corrections and not losing conviction can be a tough nut to crack. It requires a strong understanding of the market dynamics, a clear investment strategy, and the ability to manage emotions in the face of extreme volatility.

• Regulatory risks 

Generally speaking, there is no clear regulatory framework for memecoins. The SEC and other regulatory bodies could potentially target memecoins, especially those perceived as securities or involving fraudulent activities. The lack of clear rules and oversight can create uncertainty and risk for investors. However, the good news for POPCAT is that it is fully community-owned. There is no single point of failure or chokepoint, and no team of developers promised to deliver any utility to the coin or increase its price. This decentralised ownership structure could potentially shield POPCAT from regulatory scrutiny, as it is not controlled by any single entity that could be held liable. 

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Conviction tracker: Eyes on the ball

Despite POPCAT being one of the strongest performers this cycle, we need to keep our minds open if new information or narrative emerges that would challenge our thesis on POPCAT. And frankly speaking, the thesis has changed slightly. Here is what we have been keeping our eyes on:

• Number of holders

A significant and sustained decrease in the number of holders would indicate a bearish shift, as investors might be losing interest or confidence in POPCAT, leading them to sell off their holdings. This would mean that community members are abandoning the meme, which can be detrimental to POPCAT's success.

The number of holders has been growing in risk-on environments. However, we de-risked very timely as POPCAT is struggling to get new holders for the last 1-2 months which supports our cautionary stance on the market at the moment.

• Social sentiment

A decline in positive sentiment or an increase in negative sentiment on social media can be a precursor to a bearish trend. It reflects the community's less favourable outlook, which can influence the broader market sentiment. Again despite being very positive in early Q4 of 2024, 2025 has been very challenging for POPCAT in terms sentiment and mindshare, thus again, confirming our cautionary stance on the cat

• Narrative trend

Negative changes in the narrative can erode investor confidence and contribute to a bearish outlook. Such changes include unfavourable regulatory news, the saturated memecoin market, or bad actors such as influencers/celebrities damaging the image of memes as pure speculative assets. During this cycle, the narrative has been strong in memecoins. However, we are constantly monitoring whether there is a shift in stories people tell and mindshare. And again, lately the meme sector has been losing mindshare overall. It now ranks 3rd in mindshare after AI and DeFi. Will it regain its top spot again? We are positive overall on the sector, but we are exercising caution at the moment.

Invalidation criteria

Based on the factors we are monitoring above, here’s how we might frame the invalidation criteria for our thesis on POPCAT:

• Macro environment

Significant changes in the broader economic environment can adversely affect speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Crypto falls into the high-risk end of the risk curve; therefore, monitoring the broader economic environment is crucial. Indicators could include aggressive tightening of monetary policies, political and geographical instabilities, or wider economic slowdowns and recessions.

At the moment, there is strong macro forces that are caping the upside for the whole crypto industry. Uncertainty around Trump's policies, thin liquidity, growth scares, potential trade or tariff wars. Therefore, we remain risk-off.

• Big players selling

If there's evidence of large-scale selling by major holders or early investors, this can be monitored through blockchain explorers. We are actively tracking major holders and early players. A major shift in their conviction can indicate the tide shift in the explosive growth of POPCAT. 

• Narrative shift

The emergence of negative themes such as stringent regulatory changes affecting memecoins, a saturation of the memecoin market, or detrimental actions by influential holders. Confirmation of these themes in major news outlets or a measurable decline in positive mentions could invalidate the current positive outlook.

• Sustained cannibalisation from other cat coins

As cat-themed coins are gaining traction, multiple competing memes in the market are fighting for attention and liquidity. Despite POPCAT's current dominance, the battle for supremacy among cat-themed coins is far from over. Several other meme coins are aggressively positioning themselves to capture market share. Therefore, despite our confidence in POPCAT, the pressure from other cat-themed memecoins should not be neglected.

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How to buy POPCAT

1. Buying on a centralised exchange

• Step 1: Choose a centralised exchange
  • Popular centralised exchanges that list POPCAT include MEXC and Gate.io.
• Step 2: Create and verify your account
  • Sign up for an account on the chosen exchange and go through the verification process,
• Step 3: Deposit funds
  • Deposit funds into your exchange account. You can typically use bank transfers, credit/debit cards, or cryptocurrency transfers.
  • Check the exchange's supported payment methods if you are depositing fiat currency (like USD or EUR).
• Step 4: Buy POPCAT
  • Navigate to the trading section of the exchange.
  • Search for the POPCAT trading pair (e.g., POPCAT/USDT, POPCAT/SOL)
  • Decide on the amount of SOL you want to purchase and choose between a market or limit order.
    • Market order: Buy POPCAT at the current market price.
    • Limit order: Set a specific price at which you want to buy POPCAT. The order will be fulfilled once the market reaches your specified price.
  • Review the order details and confirm the purchase.
• Step 5: Withdraw POPCAT to your wallet
  • After purchasing POPCAT, it's a good practice to withdraw the tokens to a secure wallet like Phantom for safekeeping.

2. Buying via Phantom wallet

• Step 1: Install Phantom wallet
  • Download and install the Phantom wallet extension for your browser from the official Phantom website.
  • Create a new wallet or import an existing one using your recovery phrase.
• Step 2: Secure your wallet
  • Write down and securely store your recovery phrase. This phrase is crucial for recovering your wallet in case of loss or device failure.
• Step 3: Fund your Phantom wallet
  • Deposit POPCAT directly into your Phantom wallet by transferring it from a centralised exchange where you've purchased POPCAT.
  • Alternatively, deposit other Solana-supported tokens stablecoins like USDT or USDC if you plan to swap them for POPCAT.
• Step 4: Use the built-in swap feature
  • Open the Phantom wallet and navigate to the "Swap" tab.
  • Choose the token you wish to swap (e.g., USDT) and select POPCAT as the output.
    • POPCAT contract address: 7GCihgDB8fe6KNjn2MYtkzZcRjQy3t9GHdC8uHYmW2hr
  • Enter the amount you want to swap and review the transaction details, including the estimated network fees.
  • Confirm the transaction and approve it within the Phantom wallet.
• Step 5: Verify the transaction
  • Once the transaction is complete, you'll see the updated POPCAT balance in your Phantom wallet.

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Cryptonary’s take

We’ve always argued that you can’t evaluate memecoins using the same fundamental metrics used to evaluate altcoins. POPCAT has been a strong winner – there’s no doubt about it. However, the recent dispersion in the market has put a ceiling into the potential upside of memecoins. On top of that, the broader market is experiencing correction amidst growing uncertainty related to macro environment.

Despite huge success and unbelieve performance, given current market environment we remain conservative about the upside of POPCAT. And if you are overexposed to the meme in current market environment, we suggest reducing the risk of your portfolio and protect your capital.

Capital preservation is key.

Cryptonary, OUT!

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Content ledger

• Cryptonary’s State of The Memecoin Market Report
• The memecoin battleground: Organic vs corporate ‘cabal’
• Corporate vs organic memecoins: Don’t become exit liquidity for VCs
• POPCAT is popping
• WTF is happening to WIF and  POPCAT?
• The purr-fect meme coin opportunity in Solana
• Dispersion and attention: Why are memecoins struggling?