Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Who is PEPE the frog

Let's start from the top. Pepe the Frog was first introduced in Matt Furie's 2005 comic Boy's Club, where he was just a chill, laid-back character. His rise to meme superstardom kicked off in 2008 when he blew up on Myspace and 4chan, with the now-iconic phrase "feels good man" becoming a staple of internet culture.

Boy's Club was a comic strip featuring Pepe and three other animal friends, living out a carefree, humorous, and relatable version of everyday life. The comic's vibe captured that raw, unfiltered, youthful energy, making Pepe a character people genuinely resonated with.

This deep-rooted internet history is exactly what makes the PEPE token stand out. It carries real cultural weight, blending nostalgia with the ever-evolving power of meme culture. That combination of recognition, virality, and historical relevance gives PEPE an edge, making it more than just another speculative play's token with real community-driven momentum behind it.

Pepe's rally set its precedent off the back of the ETF and BTC halving narrative way back in February 2024, which saw a price increase of around 1,100%. This was an impressive move, and the follow-up price action throughout the year has been even more credible.

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Market context

The cryptocurrency market is transitioning into a phase driven by institutional inflows and global adoption, but the real catalyst on the horizon is the influx of retail investors. On-chain analytics, such as the number of active addresses, show that the market hasn't reached the euphoric retail participation levels of 2017 and 2021 yet. This points to a significant wave of retail capital still waiting to enter, creating major opportunities for the right assets.

Pepe (PEPE) is positioned to capture this momentum better than most. Recent high-profile launches, like Trump's $TRUMP token, have given the memecoin sector a boost, validating the space and driving attention toward established leaders like PEPE.

Right now, the market is heavily influenced by prospect theory, with traders seeking high-risk, high-reward plays. This explains the explosive demand for small-cap tokens and the speculative loop we're seeing, where institutional investors chase parabolic moves like those in PEPE - high cap but still reflexive due to memetics. Platforms like Pump.Fun amplifies this behaviour by facilitating quick turnover trades instead of long-term conviction plays.

The token supply side of the market has also exploded. We've gone from a few thousand tokens in the last cycle to over 30 million tradable tokens today, and that number is projected to triple. This extreme dispersion is capping meme coins within the $3 billion to $5 billion market cap range as capital rotates too quickly for sustained growth. Instead of consolidating into quality projects, liquidity is being spread thin, leading to a PvP-style market dynamic where capital moves from one opportunity to the next.

But PEPE has already broken out of this ceiling. Surpassing the $5 billion mark and securing Tier 1 exchange listings has pushed it into the same league as DOGE and SHIBA. This puts PEPE on a different level compared to the vast majority of meme tokens. In a market flooded with new projects and thinning liquidity, PEPE has shown its ability to rise above the noise and seems to have achieved an escape velocity.

While dispersion dominates the current landscape, markets and human psychology tend to work like a pendulum. Trends push to extremes, and when they go too far, they reverse. The growing supply of tokens will likely lead to saturation, where demand can't keep up. Market tops for meme coins in the $3 billion to $5 billion range could fall lower as capital becomes spread too thin. At some point, the market will become random and unsustainable, with extreme volatility and scams forcing a shift back to quality. When that happens, tokens that have achieved an escape velocity, like PEPE, will likely attract renewed interest.

The idea is simple: cream always rises to the top. PEPE has already positioned itself as one of the few meme coins that stands apart from the noise. It's firmly in a higher league with DOGE and SHIBA, and as the market pendulum swings back toward quality, PEPE is a good bet as a proxy for memes.

PEPE stats & fundamentals

Market cap: $4.3 Billion

PEPE's $4.3 Billion market cap cements its status as one of the heavyweights in the crypto meme space. This is a testament to the strong backing of both the community and investors. Few meme coins achieve this level of momentum, especially in the context of this over-saturated market, and PEPE's ability to do so in such a competitive environment shows that it's more than just a short-term trend.

FDV: 4.3 Billion

PEPE's fully diluted valuation (FDV) being equal to its market cap is a huge positive. It means the entire token supply is already in circulation, eliminating inflation concerns and providing transparency, which is a rarity in the meme coin market. This structure makes PEPE particularly attractive to investors who value predictable tokenomics, avoiding the pitfalls of inflationary dilution.

Holders: 394.47K

With nearly 400,000 holders, PEPE's reach and community strength are undeniable. This growing holder base is critical for maintaining momentum and sustaining interest in a space where community engagement often drives price action. It's not just attracting speculators; it's building a loyal network of long-term believers who contribute to the token's stability and growth.

Fixed supply mechanism - PEPE operates on a fixed supply model with a total of 420.69 trillion tokens. While a fixed supply isn't something drastically unique in the crypto space, it holds significant weight when compared to Dogecoin, often considered PEPE's "big brother." Unlike Dogecoin, which is inflationary, PEPE's fixed supply creates a sense of scarcity and aligns with the basic principles of supply and demand.

This difference gives PEPE a unique positioning in the meme coin market, as it offers an alternative to Dogecoin's ever-expanding supply, appealing to traders looking for a more structured tokenomics model; this would be more attractive to more sophisticated players if memes do become long term bets especially.

Pepe's growing community and strength in numbers

Holder growth

PEPE's holder base continues to grow steadily, even during periods of market volatility. Nearly 394,500 holders as of now underscore its enduring appeal. Unlike many meme coins that fade after an initial pump, PEPE's ability to attract new investors during challenging conditions shows its staying power.

Social media presence

PEPE has over 700,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), along with active communities on Telegram, Discord, and Reddit. The engagement is undeniable-followers are constantly driving discussions, creating memes, and keeping the token visible. This level of activity ensures PEPE stays relevant and competitive, even as the market constantly shifts.

Resilience

Even during price pullbacks, PEPE's community remains loyal. Holders demonstrate their commitment by staying through dips, which helps accelerate recoveries and reinforces momentum. This resilience is what separates PEPE from other meme coins that see sharp declines in community engagement over time; we know this because of the steady growth during Pepe's recent pullback post-Trump win.

In a space as dispersed and speculative as meme coins, many top meme tokens have seen declines in their holder base and community engagement over time. PEPE stands out by maintaining steady growth and a dedicated community, showing that the people are acting in a manner that means Pepe has a higher probability of staying around. This consistency reinforces its position as a top-tier meme coin and puts it in a league of its own, demonstrating its ability to capture and retain investor confidence.

Viral impact and market dominance

PEPE thrives on virality. During bullish phases, its network effects create exponential growth, with activity across social platforms snowballing into increased demand and attention. The token's cultural relevance, combined with its ability to dominate conversations, ensures that PEPE remains a leading name in the meme coin space.

The chart below beautifully illustrates the increase in mindshare and discussions when prices rise. On November 13th, after its Coinbase and Robinhood listings, PEPE dominated mindshare at 3.52%. While this number may not seem huge, it is significant in an asset class with millions of tokens competing for attention; very few altcoins or memes will achieve this level of mind share at all.

The Coinbase and Robinhood listings were massive for PEPE, with trading volume hitting $10 billion in just 24 hours. That's 20% more than its $8 billion market cap, giving it a Trading Volume-to-Market Cap (TV-MC) ratio of 1.20.

For the volume in a single day to outpace the entire market valuation, it says everything about the liquidity and attention PEPE commands, especially in a market overflowing with new tokens. This is shown below in the chart.

ETF speculation: Could PEPE be next?

With DOGE, SHIBA, and Trump's $TRUMP token filing for ETFs, it's clear that meme coins are entering the institutional conversation, which is crazy, but they are, and they can't be ignored. While no official discussions have surfaced for PEPE, its presence on Tier 1 exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood makes it a logical candidate for ETF speculation.

In crypto, speculation drives markets. Just the idea of an ETF could be enough to generate significant momentum for PEPE. Meme coins thrive on narratives, and the potential of PEPE becoming the next ETF contender could easily draw capital and attention. Its high liquidity, established community, and cultural weight put it in a prime position to benefit from such a narrative; with how it traded on Tier 1 listing days, the ETF could excite those traders again.

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So why is Pepe the choice out of the rest?

Dogecoin (DOGE)

DOGE is the original meme coin, launched in 2013, with an inflationary supply that mints 10,000 DOGE per minute forever. While that makes it tough to sustain long-term value, its legacy and cultural relevance are unmatched. Elon Musk's backing keeps it alive, but compared to PEPE, DOGE lacks the scarcity and novelty that today's retail market craves. PEPE's fixed supply and fresh appeal give it an edge over DOGE's outdated inflationary model.

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

SHIB launched in 2020 as a "Dogecoin killer" with a deflationary model designed to create scarcity. Significant token burns reduced its supply from the original one quadrillion, making it more appealing for long-term holders. SHIB also brought utility into the mix with ShibaSwap and its metaverse plans. But while SHIB tries to balance meme culture with utility, PEPE keeps it simple meme energy with no distractions. Its lower price per token and viral brand give it a fresher edge in the current retail supercycle.

TRUMP

Launched in 2025, TRUMP has a fixed supply of 1 billion tokens, but 80% of them are controlled by insiders linked to the Trump Organization. While its association with a global figure drives hype, the insider concentration makes it risky. Compared to PEPE, TRUMP feels too centralized, while PEPE's meme culture and decentralized appeal resonate more with retail investors chasing FOMO.

PEPE

PEPE entered the market in 2023 and immediately established itself with a bold, meme-first approach. With a fixed supply of 420.69 trillion tokens, it keeps things straightforward, which resonates with retail traders who prefer simplicity. Unlike DOGE or SHIB, PEPE doesn't try to complicate its narrative- it's purely a meme coin, and that works in its favour. Its affordability, viral appeal, and strong brand make it the perfect fit for today's market, driven by high-risk, high-reward plays and instant gratification; in a way, this could also attract more sophisticated investors as well.

What makes PEPE unique is its identity. As a frog, it stands out in a market dominated by dog-themed tokens. That difference sets it apart and gives it its own space, making it feel fresh while still connecting with meme culture.

PEPE works because it nails the fundamentals of what makes a meme coin successful: cultural relevance and simplicity. DOGE has a legacy but lacks something new. SHIB tries to add utility, which overcomplicates it. TRUMP is centralized and lacks broad community backing. PEPE's focus on staying true to meme culture while bringing its own edge keeps it at the centre of attention.

An ETF could be a major catalyst. DOGE, SHIB, and TRUMP have already filed, and PEPE, with its Coinbase and Robinhood listings and massive liquidity, is well-positioned to follow. Even without an official filing, the speculation alone could drive significant interest. In crypto, speculation is often enough to move markets, and PEPE has the structure and narrative to capitalize on it.

Technical analysis

Initially, throughout the majority of 2023 Pepe's price remained relatively choppy with not much excitement, with occasional minor pumps, leading to an extended consolidation period of nearly 300 days. This phase likely tested the patience of early investors. However, this was followed by a sharp surge exceeding 1,000%, indicating a sudden influx of interest and capital. Subsequent pullbacks with strong buying above recent swing lows show that participants have been willing to continuously pay a higher price for Pepe over time.

Bullish price action, characterized by significant weekly candles, suggests a strong FOMO-driven buying spree, with investors eager to jump in and capture gains. Even during pullbacks, the market displayed resilience, with buyers stepping in, leading to choppy corrections rather than deep declines. This pattern indicates a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with buyers maintaining the upper hand.

This behaviour suggests that investors are willing to buy at higher levels during pullbacks, reflecting confidence in the asset's potential; the usual framework is we like to see memes survive big back continuously; from a price action point of view, Pepe has set its own standard here

Overall, Pepe's price action reveals a market psychology dominated by aggressive buying, driven by FOMO, and a strong belief in its value, leading to shallower retracements and swift recoveries.

Where are we now from a TA point of view?

Pepe is trading within two key levels that define its current range-0.0000008 to the downside and 0.000021 to the upside. The downside level is significant because, after Trump's win, we saw a massive 250% rally from this exact area, which is impressive given Pepe's already sizable market cap.

That tells us there's a ton of buying interest here, and the fact that the price just wicked perfectly into this level before bouncing reinforces its importance. If we were looking to buy Pepe with conviction, this is the best price within context, offering a strong risk-to-reward setup.

However, if this level breaks down, conviction would drop slightly, and caution is warranted-you'd want to enter more conservatively and wait for further confirmation. If buyers continuously step in and we see solid demand and base-building, this could serve as a major launch pad for Pepe's next move.

On the upside, 0.000021 is where we've already seen some selling pressure, and these levels tend to act like magnets- meaning it's highly probable we take that out before pushing into all-time highs. If capital starts flushing into Pepe, which is very likely based on the broader argument, we could see it move aggressively towards that upside target.

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Portfolio strategy: Where this token fits

The current market structure demands a balanced yet dynamic approach to portfolio management. BTC, ETH, and SOL remain the core holdings, offering stability, liquidity, and long-term growth potential.

These assets form the foundation of the portfolio, ensuring exposure to the most reliable plays in the market. However, with the rapid rise of speculative opportunities and an oversaturated market, keeping flexible capital ready to rotate into high-momentum narratives is critical.

This shift in market dynamics is heavily influenced by prospect theory. Traders are drawn to high-risk, high-reward opportunities, fueling the explosion of new token launches. In this increasingly PvP-driven environment, it's less about betting on long-term dominance and more about deploying capital tactically into sectors like AI, new L1s, and meme tokens.

However, not all meme tokens are created equal. While many follow fleeting speculative cycles, a few have risen above the noise to gain market credibility. Pepe (PEPE) and Dogecoin (DOGE) stand out as clear leaders in this space. Both benefit from strong cult followings, deep liquidity, centralized exchange listings, and proven performance. These factors make them more stable compared to low-cap meme tokens that are highly speculative.

This was recently demonstrated by DOGE's $30 billion market cap surge following Trump's win, proving that when capital flows into meme coins, it prioritizes the strongest names. Similarly, PEPE has shown resilience, market acceptance, and consistent performance, making it a standout candidate for portfolio allocation in the meme coin sector.

Portfolio allocation approach

1. Core holdings (BTC, ETH, SOL):

Allocate the majority of capital here for stability, liquidity, and reliable long-term upside.

1. Hot sector rotations:

Maintain flexible capital to deploy into trending narratives, including AI, emerging Layer 1s, and high-momentum sectors.

1. High-credibility memes and alts (PEPE, DOGE, HYPE):

Dedicate a small but meaningful portion of the portfolio to these assets. While they sit higher on the risk curve, their established market presence offers more stability compared to lower-tier speculative plays.

Why this works

This strategy provides a strong foundation while maintaining the flexibility to capitalize on fast-moving narratives. It recognises that not all meme tokens are equal names, and like PEPE and DOGE, they will capture meme capital first before it cascades into smaller plays.

By balancing core stability with tactical exposure to asymmetric opportunities, this approach positions the portfolio for growth while managing the risks of a volatile and oversaturated market. PEPE, in particular, has demonstrated its ability to rise above the noise, making it a strong addition to this strategy.

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Playbook

This is the technical region where we would look to bid Pepe and build a spot position. The price sits within a key historical buying zone and also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the larger time frame.

From an R/R perspective, this is a generous pullback while still maintaining the bullish characteristics of the asset, making it an optimal accumulation zone.

Buy boxes:

• Buy box Topside: $0.00000950
• Buy box Support: $0.00000600

2025 price prediction

Pepe's been swinging with 61% pullbacks and 200-300% expansions. If we see another 250% jump from where we are, Pepe could hit $0.0000400, catapulting the market cap to around $17-18B. Despite a generally flat market overall this year for many assets along the risk curve, holder counts are increasing, even during dips. So, our prediction for Pepe in 2025 is a conservative 300% growth, targeting $0.0000400. It's a better risk-reward scenario than the newer, riskier tokens.

Conservative 2025 target:

Price target: $0.0000400 Percentage gain: 300% Potential upside: 4x

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Cryptonary's take

We think PEPE is the most attractive asset in the memecoin sector when compared to other major memes. Its virality and cultural resonance secured its place among the top-performing assets of this cycle. Unlike many speculative meme coins that quickly fade, PEPE has demonstrated resilience, market acceptance, and a strong liquidity profile, making it a legitimate contender in portfolio allocations.

This asset may not be a pick for everyone's portfolio, but for those looking for a bit more diversification and a lower-risk meme play with strong upside potential, PEPE is a solid token to consider.

We are bullish on PEPE in the mid-to-long term. However, we should also note that it had recently broken its structure, signalling some caution. Even though we believe it is a very solid pick at this stage of the market, we don't want to rush it for now. However, we are looking to add PEPE as our pick once it reclaims key levels and has a clear, bullish market structure.

Peace!

Cryptonary, OUT!