The IPO is happening on Thursday, and according to early reports, it is more than five times oversubscribed. 

Going public means retail investors can now participate in the upside – but we are talking about a stock here, not crypto. 

Interestingly, some of the largest blockchain communities exist on Reddit. 

So, while there isn't a way to get direct exposure to Reddit on-chain, the question is, "How can we participate in Reddit's potential upside?"

Well, it turns out that some of the communities have tokens – and their tokens could serve as proxies providing pseudo-exposure to Reddit's potential upside. 

What does these look like?

Let's dive in!

TLDR

• Reddit, one of the largest social media platforms, is going public through an already highly oversubscribed IPO.
• The IPO will bring mainstream attention to Reddit and likely drive significant new user growth.
• Many major crypto communities exist on Reddit in the form of large, active subreddits.
• These subreddits have their own tokens that could see massive upside if new users flock to them post-IPO
• Three tokens tied to subreddits with millions of members are projected to see upside potential of 31x, 40x, and 64x, respectively.
• While speculative, these tokens offer the potential for outsized gains by providing proxy exposure to Reddit's growth.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. 

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Reddit - a meme paradise 

Most of you will be aware of Reddit. However, what's not too often spoken about is the scale of the platform. So, here's some figures:

• Seventy million daily active users. 
• 30+ billion monthly views across all content. 
• In 2021, Reddit was valued at $10 billion.
• Reddit generated $810 million in ad revenue last year. 

On the surface, for crypto people, Twitter/X seems to be the place to be for all things crypto. But that doesn't do Reddit justice—it's where the masses go to discuss (a generous term for what happens on Reddit) crypto in an ordered forum. 

Popular subreddits include r/CryptoCurrency, r/ethtrader, r/Dogecoin, but hundreds of others exist. The top subs have millions of followers - and this is where we potentially capitalise. 

The thesis 

Reddit decided to go public, which means they're selling shares on Thursday. Raising at a valuation of $6.5 billion, many are viewing this as a low-ball valuation considering previous estimates ($10 billion in 2021), and so the IPO is as much as five times oversubscribed, if not more. 

Naturally, investors in TradFi will have a reason to monitor Reddit's performance metrics as they do with other stocks. Essentially, the platform debuts on Wall Street - and we know that's where all the big money is. Therefore, Reddit will start appearing in investment magazines, and without spending a penny on marketing, a whole new market of users will be opened up.

Boomers will be all, "What's this Reddit stock I keep hearing about?" etc. You know how it is. 

Reddit will appear in the news. By proxy, this will result in more sign-ups and engagement, naturally.

But we're not here to discuss stocks.

We're a couple of months into a bull market, and we've already seen a huge influx of new degens entering the market. These participants will gravitate towards social media platforms to talk about the tokens they've invested in. 

You can pinpoint each bull market on the r/CryptoCurrency subscriber chart:

 

Clearly visible are spikes in 2017 and 2021 - we have no reason to believe that 2024 will be any different. 

This is the case across most crypto-related subreddits. 

Many of these subreddits have quality content, which keeps people engaged. 

What do you do when you're part of a community of like-minded people who make you laugh and provide helpful information on demand?

You buy the token - and there's the thesis. 

There's a high likelihood these new degens will buy the official token for their subreddit when we hit the "buy anything" stage of euphoria. 

All of the following tokens have the same general characteristics, with the key metric being the potential for the subreddit to record a surge in subscriber growth.

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MOON (r/CryptoCurrency)

MOON is the community token for the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit, which has over 7.6 million members and is one of the most active subreddits on the site. 

At launch, MOON was distributed to all r/CryptoCurrency users based on the amount of karma they had accrued on the subreddit up to that point. The token was originally launched as an ERC-20 token but has been ported to Arbitrum, making the token much more accessible.

In terms of utility, there's really not a lot. It's a SocialFi token, meaning that r/Cryptocurrency users can tip people MOONs for a good post/comment, etc. 

This adds value to the community and drives engagement - people post for clout most of the time, and MOON adds the "steroids" factor.  

If we call "RedditFi" a sector, MOON would be Bitcoin—it has the largest subscriber count and the highest market cap.

Tokenomics

There are currently 80.6 million MOONs circulating, with an uncapped supply.

The inflation rate is around 900k MOON per month (rewards paid for interacting with r/CryptoCurrency, around 1% of supply per month), which is roughly 12.6% inflation annually.

With a $30 million market cap, up over 200% this year, MOON has shown signs of our thesis being accurate. 

Valuation

With the addition of potentially millions of new members and a "buy anything" mentality, we think MOON can reach a market cap of around $1 billion. 

This might seem conservative given the size of the subreddit, but we would be cautious since users will be selling tokens earned from interacting with the community. 

Selling pressure will be a function of community size, sentiment, and normal market forces like speculation and profit-taking. This will offset the buyers to a degree.

Still, this puts MOON at a price of ~$ $12.50 per token from ~$ $0.40 at present, a ~31x increase from here.

Technical analysis

MOON rallied close to 600% in a 24-day period between February 23 and March 17, reaching an all-time high of $0.67.

Over the past three days, the token has undergone a healthy correction to $0.39. Currently, MOON is trying to recover from the support range of $0.39-$0.29, but prolonged consolidation in this range is possible. Fibonacci's golden zone of 0.5-0.618 lies between this range, so structurally, MOON should bounce from this range. The Relative Strength Index has also undergone a reset, falling under the overbought zone. While this indicates a subsiding bullish pressure, it allows the market to breathe and prepare for a second leg. 

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DONUT (r/ethtrader)

Hot on the heels of MOON comes DONUT, the community token of the subreddit equivalent of an Ethereum degen paradise.

This sub is more focused on discussing developments in that ecosystem, so it has fewer subscribers as a natural result.

With just over 2.2 million subscribers, r/ethtrader is one of the more active communities owing to the "maxi" mindset amongst many of its followers. I.e. everyone has an opinion, and everyone wants to share it - it's essentially a huge echo chamber, as all subreddits usually are. 

Still, as Ethereum has the second-largest market cap, and with an Ethereum ETF on the horizon, this token could do well.

Tokenomics

DONUT has an uncapped supply and a current circulating supply of ~220.5 million. 

Inflation figures vary wildly every month, but a rough estimate is between 250-300k per month. 

With a market cap of ~$5 million, DONUT leaves much wiggle room regarding upside potential.

Valuation

Now, the issue with token-specific subreddits is that, if anything, r/ethtrader members are more likely to buy ETH or Ethereum-related tokens.

Even more likely, they'll sell DONUT rewards to buy that ETH. As such, we'll have to reduce our expectations.

The above is a recent comment made by one of the r/ethtraders - but it also shows the current state of the subreddit. 

Now, imagine the sentiment he's complaining about, but there are 3/4/5 times more members in there shilling DONUT. 

Therefore, although we've got a lower projection for DONUT, we still believe it can reach as high as $200 million this year. 

This places DONUT at a price of ~$0.90 from a current price of $0.023, a ~40x from here.

Technical analysis

DONUT has experienced a strong correction of around 68% after reaching a high of $0.06 on March 12. It is currently at around $0.02, with minor recovery in play.

The long-term accumulation is between $0.012 and $0.004, but bids can be placed at the confluence of 100-ema and 200-ema, as presented in the chart. This has acted as bullish support in 2024. 

One caution to be noted is DONUT's low trading volume of only $132,000 for a market cap of $4.4 million.

It is not the worst, but it should have been higher for a trending token. 

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BRICK (r/FortNiteBR)

 

This one is a bit different. We're all aware of Fortnite (if you aren't, you've been living in another dimension where Fortnite was never created). 

Although it's a game and not a crypto project, we cannot forget the community—standing at over 4.1 million members. 

FortNiteBR is fast becoming one of the largest communities on Reddit thanks to the EpicGames marketing-industrial complex. 

BRICK is their subreddit community token and operates in exactly the same way as MOON and DONUT. 

The key here is that many Fortnite players will spend hundreds of dollars on skins. Why not a community token related to Fortnite?

Speculators are even more likely to buy BRICKs because they've heard of Fortnite - again, who hasn't?

Tokenomics

BRICK has an uncapped supply and a current circulating supply of ~64 million. 

Inflation figures are unclear, but we believe that BRICK is modelled after MOON. 

With a market cap of ~$ $7.8 million, there's a clear disparity between Fortnite's popularity, its subreddit community size, and that low market cap.

Valuation

Considering the longevity Fortnite has already displayed, we envision the subscriber count on the subreddit will increase continuously in the foreseeable future. 

It's important to note that BRICK is not in any way endorsed by Fortnite or EpicGames.

As interactions increase, BRICK comes to the forefront as more subscribers get paid and become more knowledgeable about the sub and the token. 

Therefore, we think that BRICK can reach a $500 million market cap, considering the same mechanics as the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit. 

People have less reason to sell unless they want to make a quick buck from rewards.

With that valuation in mind, this sets the target at $7.80 per BRICK, a 64x from the current price of $0.12

Technical analysis 

BRICK experienced a 50% drop from $0.24 to $0.12. However, on the daily chart, the price is recovering with a 12% rise. 

Fundamentally, BRICK has followed a traditional resistance-support-based price action, and it is currently retracing from a long-term resistance that turned support at $0.118. Another positive confluence to the re-test is that the support of $0.118 is coupled with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line. 

Strong demand here may allow BRICK to gradually recover near its recent high of $0.24. BRICK represented a decent trading volume of over $600,000 for its $9 million market cap. 

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How to buy

MOON

MOON is available on the following centralised exchanges:

• Kraken
• CoinEx
• Crypto.com

Additionally, you can get MOON directly on-chain via Arbitrum Nova. 

First, you need to bridge ETH (or another asset) with Arbitrum Nova. 

MOON can then be purchased via RCPSwap.

DONUT

DONUT is not on any CEX, but you can find it on UNISwap.

BRICK

BRICK is available on the following centralised exchanges:

• Kraken
• Gate.io
• CoinEx
• Crypto.com

Additionally, it can be found on RCPSwap on Arbitrum Nova (same process as MOON).

Guides

• Installing MetaMask extension.
• To change chains on MetaMask, click this dropdown menu.

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Cryptonary's take

There is a growing trend of subreddits launching tokens for their communities. These tokens are somewhere between meme coins and SocialFi coins. Mostly, it's the moderators/admins looking for some form of "payment" for their efforts in managing the community.

However, as is often the case with winning meme coins, the narrative around these coins can take off rapidly, turning a flippant idea into a serious money maker. The three coins profiled in this report have the best odds of success relative to most community coins. They have large communities and high engagement.

Regarding allocations, we would treat this as a memecoin play, so our allocation will be small. We consider them as moonshots but with favourable tailwinds. 

It is also important to note that these coins rally hard and fall sharply; a zoomed-out look at their charts confirms this. So, you might be better off taking profits on the way up rather than waiting for a single max payout at the peak of the rally.

The social juggernaut is about to hit the mainstream and will take its subreddits with it. 

Don't fade the power of Reddit. 

Cryptonary, OUT!

The Power of Reddit & Crypto—Don't Miss Out!

Reddit’s IPO is set to bring a wave of new users, and history shows that when communities grow, their tokens pump. With MOON, DONUT, and BRICK poised for potential 31x, 40x, and 64x gains, now is the time to get in early.

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